WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans’ party affiliation has flipped back toward the Democratic Party after the Republican Party held advantages for most of 2023 and 2024. However, these changes in party preference are occurring at a time when the Democratic Party’s image is at an all-time low and slightly worse than that of the Republican Party. Further, Americans are no more likely to believe Democrats are better than Republicans at managing the federal government or bringing about changes the country needs.
Shifts in party affiliation away from the ruling party have occurred in the first year of most recent presidential administrations. The current movement in party preferences is primarily driven by a greater share of political independents saying they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Party Preferences Shift in Second Quarter
In the second quarter of 2025, an average of 46% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, while 43% identified as Republicans or said they lean Republican.
That three-percentage-point Democratic advantage compares with a tie between the two parties in the first quarter of 2025, after a four-point Republican lead in the fourth quarter of 2024. Until now, the Republican Party had led or tied in most quarters since 2023.
These findings are based on quarterly averages of 优蜜传媒poll data, consisting of interviews with no fewer than 3,000 U.S. adults in each quarter.
The net three-point increase in Democratic affiliation between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, from 43% to 46%, is entirely due to more Americans saying they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party (up four points), not because more are identifying as Democrats outright (down one point).
Meanwhile, Republicans’ four-point decline over the same period is due to equal two-point declines in the percentages of people identifying as and leaning Republican.
As such, most of the movement in party affiliation in the past three quarters has occurred among U.S. adults with weaker party attachments — leaning independents — than among core party identifiers.
Democratic Party Image at Record Low
Democratic gains in party affiliation have occurred despite the party’s poor public image. In fact, the Democratic Party’s 34% favorable rating is the lowest 优蜜传媒has measured for the group in its trend dating back to 1992. The prior low was 36% in November 2014, after the party lost its majority in the U.S. Senate in that year’s midterm election, which gave the Republican Party control of both houses of Congress at the time.
Americans’ favorable rating of the Republican Party is slightly better, but still quite negative, at 38%. The GOP’s current favorable rating is down from 44% in November after last year’s elections gave the party full control of the federal government.
The Democratic Party’s image woes partly stem from Democratic identifiers’ historically low favorable rating of their own party. Seventy-three percent of Democrats now have a positive opinion of the party. This is down sharply from 87% in the prior reading in November and contrasts with a 91% favorable rating of the Republican Party among Republican identifiers.
Before now, the prior low in Democrats’ favorability toward their own party was 77% in May 2017, during Donald Trump’s first year of his first term, when Republicans also had majorities in both houses of Congress.
The average Democratic Party favorable rating among Democrats since 2008 is 88%. Republicans have typically been less favorable toward the Republican Party, averaging 83% favorable since 2008. Thus, the current situation where Republicans like their own party better than Democrats do is unusual, having happened only previously for an extended period toward the end of 2020, the final year of Trump’s first term in office.
The Democratic Party’s historically low favorability is also attributable to independents’ poor evaluation of the party. Just 27% of independents rate the Democratic Party favorably, essentially tying the low of 25% from November 2014.
The GOP fares no better among independents, with a 28% favorable rating in the current survey, which is down from 42% just before the 2024 election and 37% immediately after it.
Democratic Party Not Seen as More Capable Than GOP
Recent gains in Democratic Party affiliation do not appear to be influenced by perceptions that Democrats are more capable than Republicans of governing the country. Similar shares of U.S. adults believe the Democratic Party (35%) and Republican Party (36%) are able to manage the federal government effectively. Slightly more Americans say the Republican Party (42%) rather than the Democratic Party (37%) can bring about changes the country needs.
Conversely, Democrats are viewed better than Republicans in two areas largely tied to party ethics, though the Democratic Party’s scores are not particularly strong. Thirty-nine percent of Americans say the Democratic Party has mostly honest and ethical members in Congress, and 36% say the party puts the country’s interests ahead of its own political interests, higher than the 31% who say the same about the Republican Party on both measures.
优蜜传媒has not asked about these specific attributes of the parties since 2011; thus, it is unclear how views of the parties on these dimensions may have changed in recent months and how those perceptions might relate to shifts in party affiliation.
Ruling Party Often Loses Supporters Early On
The latest party shifts appear to reflect less of a change in how the parties are viewed overall or perceived in terms of competence, and more of a typical reaction to one party controlling the presidency and both houses of Congress.
Each of the last six new presidents took office with their party also having majorities in both houses of Congress. Those clear lines of political accountability made the ruling party vulnerable in the first midterm election if Americans were unhappy with the president’s performance. All first-term presidents since 1994, with the exception of George W. Bush in 2002 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, had job approval ratings below 50% at the time of the midterm election. The incumbent presidents subsequently saw their party lose one (2010, 2018 and 2022) or both (1994) houses of Congress in the first midterm election of their presidency.
Those midterm losses were preceded by shifts in party affiliation away from the ruling party during the president’s first year in office. The president’s party saw declines in the percentage identifying with it or leaning toward it in 1993, 2009, 2017 and 2021. The rally in support for Bush and the government after 9/11 helped Republicans make gains in party affiliation in 2001, although that year was also an exception because Republicans had lost their Senate majority in May of that year after Sen. Jim Jeffords changed his party affiliation and caucused with the Democrats.
In some presidential first years, declining affiliation with the president’s party was apparent between the first and second quarters, including 1993, 2009 and this year. In 2017 and 2021, the party changes occurred later in the year, including the fourth quarter in 2017 under Trump and the third quarter in 2021 under Joe Biden.
Biden and the Democratic Party saw the biggest total first-year decline: seven points by the end of his first year, after the U.S. had suffered a major surge in COVID-19 infections, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and a spike in inflation.
The decline in Republican Party affiliation in Trump’s first term was smaller, likely because his party was starting from a relatively weak political position in 2017 at the outset of his presidency, with 42% of U.S. adults identifying as Republican or leaning Republican. But that had dwindled to 40% by the end of his first year.
As is the case this year, party affiliation movement in prior presidential first years was primarily seen among leaning independents rather than party identifiers. In fact, in 2009, 2017 and 2021, all of the movement occurred among political independents.
Bottom Line
Consistent with the common pattern of the out-party making gains at the start of a new presidency, Democratic Party affiliation has increased since Trump was elected, and now Democrats hold an edge. But the political implications of that, including a potential midterm windfall, are tempered by the simultaneous finding that the party has never been more unpopular than it is now. Aside from its record-low favorable score, the Democratic Party is rated no better than the GOP for being able to manage the government effectively or for bringing about needed changes.
Additionally, the partisan shifts this year are primarily seen in the partisan leanings of political independents, whose temporary loyalties could easily change. Gallup’s July survey, the first of the third quarter, shows the Democratic advantage similar to what it was in the second quarter, suggesting their lead in party affiliation is holding for now.
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